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|
Philip J. Wyatt
is the Chief Executive Officer
of Wyatt Technology Corporation. Dr. Wyatt
received his undergraduate education in liberal
arts, physics and mathematics at the University
of Chicago, and Christ's College, Cambridge. His
graduate education was completed at the
University of Illinois (M.S.) and the Florida
State University (Ph.D.). The author of more
than fifty articles, Dr. Wyatt has co-authored
three textbooks, and was one of fifteen
finalists for this country's first
Scientist-Astronaut Selection Program. He is a
Fellow of the American Physical Society and the
Optical Society of America, and has had over
thirty foreign and domestic patents issued
relating to laser light scattering.
He was
selected as one of 15 finalists of the first U.
S. Scientist Astronaut selection program, but
remained behind on Earth.
|
Background
The focus of this paper concerns the early detection of
biological agents being used as weapons of “mass
destruction”—that is, able to produce thousands of
casualties as a consequence of a single attack. More
recent “targeted” attacks, such as those delivered by
mail, are treated as localized attacks for which early
warnings are also sought. A new problem created by such
localized attacks concerns the detection and remediation
of residues following such attacks and the means by
which they may be removed or otherwise rendered
harmless. This topic is discussed later and may well
represent the biological equivalent of residual
radioactivity following a nuclear attack.
With the 11 September 2001 cataclysmic
terrorist attacks on New York City and the Pentagon, the
use of biological agents attracted renewed attention as
a possible next means for a terrorist attack.
With the 2001 plethora of anthrax spore incidents, it
appears that such attacks have started already.
The generally accepted “best mode” for delivering a
biological weapon has been by means of a dispersed
aerosol cloud,[1]
the colorless and odorless
constituents of which are inhaled by an unprepared
population. More recently, anthrax spores have been
disseminated using the mail to deliver envelopes that,
when opened, release small “puffs” of weaponized spores.
While the envelope delivery results in a localized
attack affecting at most some tens of individuals,
employment of a dispersed aerosol cloud, if it works,
appears to be the most certain means of inflicting
catastrophic consequences on the targeted population.
The only way either of these results may be prevented or
reduced significantly is through an early warning to the
targeted populations. Without such warning, there is
little likelihood that the exact nature of the disease
or toxicant will be known until a large fraction of the
compromised population begins to show pathological
symptoms. In addition, only by such warnings would local
populations know when to deploy protective masks and
enter protective shelters (were such available) or, in
the case of envelope delivery, leave the room. Even with
the most ambitious of the current rapid diagnostic
armamentaria available, such diagnoses may require
several days for confirmation. The possibility remains
extremely low that target populations will have
sufficient triage capabilities, antibiotics (as
required), or even antitoxins in sufficient quantities
to treat those already affected. Were the attacked
populations to receive an early warning of the threat
together with details of the threat cloud or puff
position and presumptive composition, the possibility of
a successful attack might be reduced significantly.
Indeed, were the target populations sufficiently
prepared to take the necessary steps to prevent
infection or inhalation of the cloud or puff
constituents, the success of the attack could be so
dramatically reduced as to make its initial deployment a
somewhat useless exercise. A major disruption of
civilian authority, even without physical casualties,
still might be considered by the terrorist to have been
a success. Proper training and preparation of potential
target populations could ameliorate such consequences,
however.
An unwarned population falling victim to such a
bioterrorist attack, which introduces a virulent
biological aerosol into a heavily populated area, might
be almost as helpless to mitigate the situation as were
the populations in Europe during the period of the Great
Plague[2]
of the mid–14th century.
Besides the lack of adequate medicines and
hospital facilities for the stricken, the psychological[3]
and even the legal[4]
consequences would be without
historical parallel. “Biological Terrorism: Legal
Measures for Preventing Catastrophe” by Barry Kellman is
a well-written work that presents, among other things,[5]
some of the unexpected legal
impediments for a suitable and rapid response following
such an attack. Many talks have been presented[6]
concerning such scenarios and the
great difficulties of coping with them. Invariably,
medical supplies would be inadequate to treat the
affected, and vaccines or other prophylactic materials
would be too late and in quantities far too small to
slow the propagation of disease and illness. Once again,
were the targeted populations given early warning of the
in-progress attack, casualties could be reduced
significantly and perhaps be avoided altogether.
Early in 1999, the Institute of Medicine, in
collaboration with the Commission on Life Sciences of
the National Research Council, released a report,[7]
Chemical and Biological
Terrorism: Research and Development to Improve Civilian
Medical Response. This report (the “National
Academies report”) was produced by the Committee on R &
D Needs for Improving Civilian Medical Response to
Chemical and Biological Terrorism Incidents, which was
appointed by the Institute of Medicine and the
Commission on Life Sciences at the request of the Office
of Emergency Preparedness (Department of Health and
Human Services). The committee was asked to
(1) collect and assess existing research, development,
and technology information on detecting potential
chemical and biological agents and protecting and
treating both the targets of attack and health care
providers, and
(2) provide specific recommendations for priority
research and development
The National Academies report presents a timely picture
of the country’s ongoing research and development
efforts in this area together with recommendations for
future research programs with the objective of
minimizing casualties from such terrorist attacks. The
report also provides extensive inventories of chemical
and biological defense technology resources available in
early 1999 as well as those expected for the near term
following. Although the committee considered both
chemical and biological threats, the focus of this
article is primarily biological attacks—that is, those
involving the release of pathogenic microorganisms as
well as a variety of significant toxins produced by
microorganisms and plants. Responding to the question of
an early-warning system, the National Academies report
states, at its onset (in the Executive Summary):
Real-time detection and measurement of biological
agents in the environment is more daunting [than the
measurement of chemical agents], even for the
military, because of the number of potential agents
to be distinguished, the complex nature of the
agents themselves, the myriad of similar
microorganisms that are always present in the
environment, and the impracticality of providing
real time, continuous monitoring at even a fraction
of the sites of potential concern. Few if any
civilian organizations currently have, or can easily
obtain, even a rudimentary capability in this area.
Before discussing this conclusion, let us review briefly
some of the key elements expected of a real-time
early-warning system.
The agents[8, 9]
of greatest interest for
bioterrorists include endospores (for example, from
Bacillus anthracis), lyophilized or otherwise viable
bacteria (for example, Yersinia pestis and
Francisella tularensis), viruses (for example,
smallpox [variola]), and toxins (for example, botulinum
[from Clostridium botulinum]). The symptoms of
many of the diseases associated with these agents are
rarely seen when the mode of infection is by inhalation;
thus the diseases are often difficult for typical
hospital staffs to diagnose properly. In addition, it is
relatively easy to modify the antibiotic
susceptibilities of the selected bacterial agents.[10]
Thus, providing huge stockpiles
of antibiotic agents[11]
suitable for treatment of the
most likely expected bioweapons might well be a waste of
effort. The leading candidate for an aerosol
deployment—anthrax spores—is an even more unusual source
of infection because the resulting illness must be
recognized and treated with large quantities of the
drugs of choice before symptoms appear. Yet, as
previously mentioned, the early symptoms of an
inhalation anthrax infection are easily confused with a
wide variety of viral, bacterial, and fungal infections,
so early diagnosis may be further delayed. Once symptoms
appear, inhalation anthrax is fatal[12]
irrespective of the treatment:
the toxin overwhelms the victim. Until recently, there
has been great emphasis on vaccination,[13,
14]
especially of the armed forces,
to protect a targeted population against anthrax. Such
vaccinations have their drawbacks, yet they have now
become available for civilian populations. A recent
discovery by Bret R. Sellman, Michael
Mourez, R. John Collier[15]
suggests that the administration
of mutant protective antigen to individuals infected
with anthrax could provide protection even at an
advanced stage of the disease. Most important,
protective antigen itself, several of the mutations of
which have been shown to be an effective antitoxin, is
already produced in great quantities during the
manufacture of anthrax vaccine. Thus, there may be a
means on the horizon by which, no matter how manipulated
the antibiotic sensitivity of the anthrax weapon, a
suitable post-infection antitoxin may be readily
available, making this weapon of choice far less
attractive. Since large quantities of toxins are
released rather suddenly in actual infections, it
remains to be seen whether mutant protective antigen
would be effective for such advanced cases of infection.
Much work must be completed before mutant protective
antigen administration can be considered safe for human
use. Quantitative dose levels must be established, and
the possibility of promiscuous binding to various cell
types must be explored in detail.
Why Early Warning?
The importance of early warning of a bioterrorist attack
cannot be overemphasized. Indeed, the simple expedient
of providing some means for protecting the respiratory
system (“masking up”) from the inhalation of the
terrorist-introduced aerosol could be expected to
provide sufficient protection until the threat cloud had
passed. Given a sufficiently early warning of an
imminent aerosol attack, simply returning to one’s home,
closing all windows, covering the entire body with even
a wet sheet, and remaining generally inactive would be
sufficient actions to protect the vast majority of the
targeted population. For small puff deliveries, the
immediate protection of the respiratory system using a
handkerchief, for example, followed by the immediate
departure from the targeted area (room) would suffice.
These would certainly be reasonable courses of action
until a satisfactory decontamination effort by the local
authorities had occurred, and it could be confirmed that
it was safe to resume normal activity. The actual means
by which such early warnings may be provided to any
at-risk population, together with an adequate education
program to ensure a clear understanding of the risks and
measures required to overcome the dangers posed by such
bioterrorist attacks, become more clearly understood
once the nature of the aerosol threat itself is
examined. Indeed, once such early-warning systems have
been deployed, the likelihood of a biological attack
with a successful outcome becomes very small. In order
that the consequences of such an attack be minimized,
the development and deployment of such an early-warning
system becomes the highest priority to discourage the
implementation of bioterrorism ab initio.
Would a deployed early-warning system affect the premise
that bioterrorism presents a significant danger? If so,
have earlier or current technological achievements (such
as the discovery by Sellman, Mourez, and Collier)
rendered the perceived threat far smaller? In recent
years, the threat of terrorist acts involving the use of
biological agents has taken on additional importance.
With a general increase of terrorist acts throughout the
world,[16]
it is reasoned that attacks using
biological agents could be initiated at relatively low
cost and with minimal technological skills by rogue
states or fringe groups. The deliveries of anthrax
spores via mail emphatically confirm this conclusion.
Arguments that such acts must be prevented or, at worst,
their consequences minimized have resulted in
significant funding for those pursuing this premise.
Conferences have been organized,[17]
study centers created,[18]
articles warning of the
associated perils published in unprecedented quantities,[19]
and significant federal spending
initiated to fund a great many of the concepts proposed
to ameliorate the threat. The U.S. government
had spent hundreds of millions of dollars over the
previous 50 years studying many of the same
areas, but this work has been generally ignored in the
rush to justify the newly authorized funding by a
concerned Congress. Many of the organizations enjoying
such federal largesse rarely refer to each other’s
accomplishments in the course of preparing their own
papers and reports. Even mention of the National
Academies report is rarely found among their references
despite the report’s exhaustive presentation.
Regrettably, these organizations seem to fear that such
citations might give the impression that the uncited
other group would share their capabilities (and
funding).
The Department of Defense has directed a large fraction
of federal funds toward developing early detection and
warning systems.[20, 21]
According to the National
Academies report, most of the funding for biodetection
devices comes from the Department of Defense
(56%), with 18% from commercial ventures. The
Department of Energy, the Food and Drug Administration,
NASA, and the Tactical Standards Working Group account
for the remaining 26%. Of the 73 devices[22]
under development in early 1999,
only 6 were commercially available; 29 of the remaining
67 were in the field-testing stage, and 38 were still in
the laboratory. The National Academies report placed
considerable emphasis on the fact that the value of all
the various military developments diminishes
considerably when applied to “the most probable civilian
terrorism situations, in which the enemy, the agent, the
time, and the place of attack are unknown.” Substantial
efforts have been directed to exploring means for the
early identification of the threat agents and the early
treatment of victims,[23]
yet many of these ongoing
programs are very similar to those supported 30 to
40 years earlier,[24,
25]
and little note is made of these
earlier attempts and their results. In 1963, for
example, the government spent $158 million
in the area of biological warfare defense,[26]
a figure comparable to the
$1.4 billion currently appropriated for defense
against all weapons of mass destruction. Although
virtually all reports written during that period are now
accessible under the Freedom of Information Act
(assuming they have not been destroyed), they are
difficult to obtain, and few current programs are aware
of, or have any interest in, this work. Yet it should be
emphasized that in those years, the government
laboratories were staffed by many of the brightest and
innovative scientists.[27]
To conduct their biological
research, these scientists may not have had all the
tools now available, but they often made up for these
shortcomings by their remarkable ingenuity as well as
their focus on the problem rather than strategies for
obtaining federal funding.
Most agencies currently supporting biodefense research
(primarily the Department of Defense) seem to believe
that an early-warning system producing a false positive
result is of far greater significance than the
possibility that among such false positives will be a
true positive. Particular emphasis[28,
29]
has been directed toward avoiding
a false positive alarm because of the panic that would
be expected in a representative civilian population (as
if there would be a lesser panic among the same group
having been warned of a true attack!). The importance of
developing detection and early-warning systems absent
any false positive components is taken for granted
without any memory, for example, of the air raids on
civilian populations during the Second World War. All
threats of imminent danger are always perceived with
panic, but there were few complaints directed toward the
“authorities” following an “all clear” announcement of a
false positive air attack. The public reaction was
generally grateful, despite the discomfort associated
with entering and remaining in an air raid shelter for
the period of the threat. Apparently, a similar civilian
reaction is discounted for a bioterrorist attack.
Considerable attention[30]
has been devoted to the need for
suitable education of all potential population targets
of bioterrorism, though, for the most part, this has
been more theoretical than practical. Still, compared to
the 1950s, for example, when this country was heavily
involved in the development of biological weapons, there
has been very little attention given to alerting the
public to these dangers. In earlier times, the
Department of Health, Education and Welfare published
pamphlets[31]
intended to assuage civilian
fears of such attacks and to explain precautions that
might be taken for protection.
Accordingly, an early-warning system with a reasonably
high probability of calling true positive events would
be invaluable and certainly the method of choice
in confronting the bioterrorist threat. Unfortunately,
the National Academies report, as earlier quoted, all
but abandoned such a concept. The current emphasis of
virtually all government spokespersons relates to areas
of civilian, policymaker, and medical participation and
action. Certainly, this emphasis alone will help to
ameliorate the elements of panic associated with such an
attack and help minimize the consequences during an
attack. Other elements stressed in the National
Academies report were the development of adequate care
delivery systems; coordination of police, military, and
civilian direction following an attack; and development
of new tools for medical management. The last item
includes the ongoing needs for better antibiotics,
better vaccines and related preventive medical care, and
a national stockpile of drugs and pharmaceutical
products.
An early-warning system still remains the paramount
objective for defense against an attack based on the
delivery of a dangerous biological agent by aerosol
means. The Preparedness Against Domestic Terrorism Act
of 2001[32]
emphasized in “Findings and
Purposes” (§2) that “the President should
strengthen Federal interagency emergency planning by the
Federal Emergency Management Agency and other
appropriate Federal, State, and local agencies for
development of a capability for early detection and
warning of and response to potential domestic terrorist
attacks involving weapons of mass destruction.” The
detection and unequivocal determination that a specific
agent known to be a biological hazard had been
introduced and was present would be sufficient
cause to initiate a warning alarm. But is such
confirmation necessary to conclude that a
biological attack has occurred? The demand, by some
quarters, that a biological aerosol threat be detected
with a minimal probability of a false positive result
seems to suggest that such definitive identification is
a characteristic that is both a necessary and a
sufficient property of a suitable early-warning system.
Yet many elements associated with an aerosol delivery
might confirm to a high level of certainty that an
attack had occurred, even without a definitive
identification of the agent(s) employed. Furthermore, an
unequivocal confirmation that a biological aerosol
threat had been inserted into a community or facility or
room helps little in establishing the most suitable
means for initiating and distributing an alarm.
Certainly the point of insertion of the threat or, at
the very least, its current position should be
determined. In addition, the extent and movement of the
threat cloud must be known for suitable warnings to be
made for the benefit of the threatened target. Indeed,
knowledge of the instantaneous location and projected
appearance of each element of the threatening
aerosol would be invaluable in providing maximum warning
time for the subsequent protection of the targeted area.
The effectiveness of an early-warning system, therefore,
will depend critically upon the ancillary information
available at the time of, and immediately following, the
attack. Not only must all elements of the threat cloud
be tracked and monitored, but the local meteorological
conditions must be known, as well as how they would
affect the cloud’s motion and extent. Integration of
these conditions into tracking software[33]
would ensure that the alarm and
warning systems would perform optimally. For puffs
delivered to specific rooms or contained locations, the
mere confirmation of their presence is sufficient cause
for an immediate evacuation followed by containment of
the affected facility.
Features of an Aerosol Threat
There appear to be few avenues for implementing such an
ambitious early-warning system. To explore the
possibilities that exist, we should examine the
characteristics of a biological aerosol threat that, in
turn, will define the most propitious elements of an
early-warning system. Table 1 lists the important
properties and characteristics of a potentially
dangerous aerosol cloud. Important operating features of
an early-warning system will flow from the discussions
following each property described. In addition, it
should be noted that some properties listed play major
roles in diminishing the aerosol cloud’s
effectiveness and, thereby, the probability of a
“successful” bioterrorist attack. An early warning of a
more localized envelope-delivered puff, on the other
hand, should be more easily provided by means of a
localized detector. These latter implementations will be
discussed later. For the present, we shall focus on the
more potent weapon of mass destruction: a dispersed
aerosol cloud. Many of the cloud properties will have
corresponding puff properties, though on a far smaller
scale.
Table 1. Hazardous aerosol cloud properties
|
Properties
|
Discussion
|
|
1. The cloud appears within a short timeframe. |
The aerosol was not present for a significant
period of time before it was detected. This
suggests that monitoring must be continuous
throughout any regions considered potential
targets. |
|
2. The constituents of the cloud are similar. |
The basic objective of a terrorist-deployed
aerosol is to inflict biological damage or
chemical damage on an unsuspecting population.
To make efficient use of the delivery mechanism
per se, the particles introduced will be
very similar in structure and function. Thus an
aerosol being used to deliver anthrax spores
will comprise individual spores or weaponized
variants. The vast majority of such particles
will be of one or, at best, a few distinct forms
and structures, which in turn may include more
than one agent—for example, both spores and a
toxin. |
|
3. The constituents of the cloud will be quite
different from those that occur naturally. |
None of the aerosol
particles of choice are found in a natural
airborne environment. Respirable biological
particulates are only rarely found in nature.
They do not appear by accident in large
quantities. Two studies[34]
of ambient bacterial
levels confirmed the fact that they are very
low. The three-year Swedish study in the 1970s
found that concentrations of airborne bacteria
in a typical city street varied between 100 and
4,000 per cubic meter. Of these, over 50% were
attached to particles larger than 8 µm.
The highest levels reported indoors in a
2001 study of airborne bacterial levels in Hong
Kong shopping malls exceeded 1,000 per cubic
meter. So even in this extreme case, no more
than a few bacteria per liter occur
naturally indoors in the presence of significant
human numbers and movement. |
|
4. In ambient air, each constituent of the cloud
falls very slowly. |
For simplicity, consider a
cloud comprising B. anthracis spores,
with each such spore characterized simply as a
sphere of a diameter of about 1.5 ?m and unit
specific gravity. Applying Stokes’ law under
ambient atmospheric conditions at a temperature
of 25 (C), we find that (absent any
wind or convective forces) it will require over
3.5 hours for the spore to fall
just one meter! Interestingly, for
envelope-delivered puffs, these properties
ensure that the local area of introduction will
remain hazardous for a great length of time.
This slow fallout rate of micrometer-size
particles is well known and, for example,
responsible for the effectiveness of military
smoke screens and their stability over
relatively long periods of time. On the other
hand, this slow descent suggests that aerosol
deployment from a low-flying airplane (a
popular delivery concept[35]
) could be quite
difficult if the targeted population is to be
reached at all. |
|
5. The concentrations of the aerosol
particulates will be very great compared to the
concentrations of the naturally occurring
aerosols. |
Because the aerosol cloud is introduced to
attack the targeted population through the
vehicle of a pulmonary infection route, the
ambient levels required to produce infection
within a relatively short time will be elevated
significantly above ambient aerosol levels. (See
the discussions that follow.) |
|
6. The aerosol cloud, once delivered, will
spread. |
Although diffusion of the cloud constituents in
ambient, still air is very slow, under most
naturally present atmospheric conditions such as
wind and temperature gradients, the cloud
boundaries and volume will expand, often quite
rapidly. Even in an enclosure containing a puff
release, the presence of eddies created by
air-conditioning systems or human movement will
aid in the dispersal of the puff. |
|
7. The particulate concentrations will be
extremely heterogeneous. |
Since the aerosol particle
diffusion in an ambient atmosphere is negligible
(see item 4 above), the initial concentrations
within the injected cloud will be affected
discontinuously by local vortices, wind gusts
and similar atmospheric inhomogeneities,
buildings, and other obstacles. Indeed, the
boundaries of the inserted cloud would represent
well-defined regions of concentration
discontinuities. The Sverdlosk release or
accident[36]
of
1979, deduced to have been caused by less than
1 gm of spores, resulted in at
least 68 human and numerous animal
fatalities. Calculation of the initial
distribution and spreading of the released
anthrax aerosol was based on a Gaussian plume
model with a set of estimated initial
conditions. Although this model did not describe
density discontinuities, it correlated well with
the tabulated mortalities. It seems likely on
the basis of new types of mathematical analyses[37,
38]
that the spore
concentrations within the infectious elements or
cells of the released puff remained
discontinuous as these elements were driven by
slight winds through well-localized regions
adjacent to the source facility. The
concentration gradients transverse to the wind
direction appeared to be and remained large. |
|
8. Particulate concentrations within the
delivered aerosol will vary with time. |
Because of the spreading of the cloud as it
passes through the target region, the
particulate concentrations present at any
localized region in space will vary with time
according to atmospheric conditions (winds,
temperature gradients, etc.) and physical
barriers. |
|
9. In ambient air, biological particles
dispersed within a meter of the ground will not
be particularly effective. |
Once spores, bacterial cells, and biological
droplets reach the ground, they generally adhere
to the soil or to larger, non-respirable
particles and remain there. Small eddies may
tend to re-suspend them, but the closer they
approach the ground, the smaller the probability
that they can be dislodged. |
|
10. To be most effective, the aerosol cloud must
be introduced at or reach an altitude compatible
with the target population’s inhaling the
constituents. |
If local winds or atmospheric disturbances carry
off or otherwise remove (for example, by means
of rain) the constituents before they are
breathed, the constituents are ineffective. It
may be difficult to localize a delivery to such
a low altitude without risking detection. This
is not true of envelope-delivered puffs, whereby
delivery is almost perfect. |
|
11. The constituents of the cloud will be
proteinaceous. |
Lyophilized bacterial cells, bacterial spores,
botulinum and other toxins, and virus-containing
respirable particulates are all expected to have
protein components. Most naturally occurring
aerosol particles do not. |
|
12. The release of a bioaerosol by terrorists
intent on causing maximum effects most certainly
would be initiated under nearly pristine
atmospheric conditions with, at most, a slight
breeze moving toward the intended target area.
The release of ultraviolet-sensitive aerosols
probably would be at night. Labile organisms
would require release at selected times when
temperature extremes could be avoided. |
Releasing such agents in the midst of a
rainstorm or severe atmospheric disturbance
would achieve very little, as the agent
constituents themselves would be cleared or
removed rapidly from their intended target.
Releases during exceptionally high background
aerosol levels (of dust or pollen,
for example) will be avoided to improve the
possibility of a successful deployment of the
threat agents, since the presence of these
natural background aerosols always will play
some role in scavenging or scrubbing by
adsorption the newly introduced biological
particles. Protecting the released aerosol
particles from deleterious effects of the sun’s
ultraviolet radiation or temperature extremes of
daytime heat would restrict further the window
of opportunity for a successful release.
Releases under such good conditions, on the
other hand, improve the probability of early
detection. Spores are somewhat less
susceptible to ultraviolet or temperature
extremes, but weaponizing may well protect other
bioaerosols as well. The closed environments of
a room or confined space wherein puffs may be
envelope-delivered are well within the class of
pristine. |
Elements of an Early-Warning System
With the properties of the threat cloud and conditions
for its introduction as listed in Table 1, the important
operating capabilities of the early-warning system may
be delineated further. Thus the system should be capable
of detecting and (as required) identifying the
following:
-
The location, time, and spatial extent of the
initial aerosol cloud at the moment of introduction
(within a room or closed environment, detection of
the initial time of release is essential)
-
The subsequent and continuing dynamics of the
aerosol cloud, including the composition and
movement of all of its constituents
-
The preliminary classification of the physical
characteristics of the individual aerosol particles
introduced; such classification should include the
types of particles characterized, such as bacterial
spores, bacterial cells, liquid droplets, and
virus-sustaining droplets
-
The particle size distributions and changes of these
distributions in time (if any) of each classified
aerosol particle present
-
The continuous concentrations of the classified
aerosol particles at all regions occupied by the
cloud and their spatial correlations with physical
structures (for example, buildings) present (if any)
In addition to these five requirements for a system of
identification and detection, the system must play an
active role by being capable of notifying the local
population of the impending danger posed by the cloud,
its estimated location, and the timeframe for taking
protective action. Finally, the early-warning system
must be automated with very little user intervention.[39]
Once again; releases of puffs via
envelope-delivery means in highly localized regions such
as rooms should be more easily detected. Consider now
the available devices that might be important elements
of such a system.
Extant Solutions
By means of generous funding, the government continues
to support the development of some interesting
“solutions” to address the problem of early detection
with unambiguous identification. For the most part, they
are slow and costly. Many are impractical, and such
impracticality was demonstrated many years earlier in
the similar government programs referenced above. One of
the approaches most frequently revisited includes
variations of lidar techniques[40,
41]
using lasers, often in the
ultraviolet, as the optical analog of conventional
radar. The objective of these systems is so-called
“stand-off” detection whereby the threat clouds may be
detected, classified, and identified before they reach
their intended target. As with other types of radar
interrogation, until the laser beam sweeps a particular
region, that region will remain unmonitored. The
placement of such systems can seriously impede their
ability to examine certain regions, and the possibility
always exists that the threat cloud will be released in
a region inaccessible to the lidar beam. The value of an
early detection determination of the information
returned by a lidar signal remains uncertain because
such signals cannot be correlated unambiguously to an
explicit terrorist-introduced aerosol.
A complementary approach that examines the local region
in which the system is located (so-called “point source”
detection) is the Biological Integrated Detection System
(BIDS) developed by the Department of Defense. This
mobile system,[42, 43]
intended for use primarily by
military ground forces, is activated by an alarm from an
aerodynamic particle sizer tuned to detect the
appearance of aerosol particles in the respirable range
of 1 µm to 10 µm. Following
detection, such particles are collected in a liquid and
then subjected to specificity tests, including selected
enzyme-linked, immuno-sorbent array assays, a pH sensor,
several specific DNA stains, a chemical mass
spectrometer, and a miniaturized flow cytometer. The
resultant set of data is assumed sufficient to identify
the threat specifically while avoiding a false positive
result. The time required for a complete analysis can be
many hours or more. In addition, the BIDS must be placed
at a single collection site and is limited, therefore,
to a very small monitoring region. (The equipment is far
too large to place in closed areas such as rooms!) In
essence, BIDS is a rapid-response mobile microbiology
laboratory equipped with the very latest and modern
testing and analytical equipment.
The particle number concentration variations within the
aerosol cloud itself are not easily describable. The
particle concentration would be little changed in an
ambient environment because the particles would diffuse
and/or fall so slowly (see Table 1, feature 4).
Only winds, local atmospheric instabilities
(eddies), and thermal gradients would affect the cloud’s
position and mixing with its surroundings. Assume that a
swath 2 km long, 10 m deep,
and 20 m wide of viable Bacillus
anthracis spores has been released upwind of a
targeted area. An airplane or even a land vehicle could
produce this cloud. Once again, as cloud constituents
reach the ground or come to rest within the boundary
layer of laminar flow near buildings and other solid
obstacles, they may adhere and, effectively, be removed.
Presumably, the remaining cloud will be pushed by winds,
eddies, and thermal gradients through the targeted
region and be diluted in a very unpredictable and random
manner by means of the obstacles (for example,
buildings) about which it flows, as well as local
meteorological conditions. Taking the dimensions of a
typical spore at about 1.4 µm in length by
0.9 µm in diameter and assuming unit
density, the mass of a single spore would be about
8.9 x 10–13 gm. Using a figure from
David Siegrist[44]
of 10 kg to produce
a nuclear-weapon-equivalent lethal release, we find that
the number of spores is just 104/8.9 x
10–13 gm = 1.12 x 1016.
Since the total volume released is 2 x 103
x 10 (20 = 4 x 105 m3 = 4x1011
ml, the density at release of spores within this
swath would be 1.12 x 1016/ 4 x 1011
= 2.8 x 104 spores/ml. Taking a lethal
(LD90) pulmonary loading[45]
of about 104
spores, a single breath from this swath of 1
liter will result in an immediate overload and
subsequent death. Naturally, lower doses may kill some
individuals, though the exact relation between an
individual’s physiological state and lethal dose is
unknown. No children seem to have been affected at
Sverdlovsk,[46]
but this has not been explained.
Using O. G. Raabe’s seminal compilation and study[47]
of the deposition and clearing of
inhaled aerosols, we can estimate the huge dilution
factor of the original cloud that would ensure lethal
inhalation by a targeted population. With a pulmonary
tidal volume of 750 ml to 1450 ml,
the deposition fraction in the deep lungs, for an
active person breathing 15 times per minute
by mouth, of particles inhaled with a size of B.
anthracis spores is between 30% and 50%. For nasal
breathing, on the other hand, the deposition fraction
would fall to between 10% and 25%. Much slower, normal
breathing of perhaps 10 breaths per minute
would reduce these numbers further. Taking an average
volume of 1,000 ml, a resting nasal
inhalation rate of about 15 breaths per
minute, and an exposure time of 1 hour, we
find that the total volume inhaled is about 15 x
60 x 1,000 ml = 900 liters. If 104
spores are retained by the pulmonary cavity
within this period and this represents 25% of the spores
inhaled, then the minimal concentration needed to ensure
a lethal dose inhaled and deposited in the deep lung
within an hour is about /nobr>104/[1.8 x 106
x 0.25] = 0.022 = 2.2 x 10–2 spores/ml = 22
spores/liter! The original concentration deposited
corresponded to 2.8 x 107 spores/liter,
so that until the dilution of the initial cloud
is increased by a factor greater than 2.8 x 107/22
= 1.27 x 106, the cloud will remain
lethally toxic at a 1-hour exposure. As the
volume of the initial swath was 4 x 105
m3 = 4 x 10–4 km3,
the final extent of a lethal cloud could be as great as
4 x 1.27 x 102 » 500 km3.
Fortunately (?), the threat cloud will not experience a
uniform expansion but will be subjected to the various
dispersal mechanisms discussed earlier to yield a highly
heterogeneous distribution. It might be reasoned that
instead of releasing a small, highly concentrated volume
such as that just described, the terrorist might reach a
far greater population by releasing a much larger cloud
achieved by greater dilution of the initial release.
However, the release of such a huge cloud capable of
maintaining 60-minute lethality would take
considerably more time and increase significantly the
likelihood of detection during deployment.
Envelope-delivered puffs, on the other hand, are
particularly dangerous if undetected, because such puffs
will generally be restricted to the room or area of
release. There will be no strong winds or major
atmospheric disturbances to sweep the threat away, and
air-conditioning systems may rapidly establish a uniform
distribution within the enclosure. Thus the effects of
cumulative breathing will be of far greater importance
than they might be out of doors. If the threat is not
detected, the exposure of some individuals may be for
many hours. Thus very low concentrations could be
expected to produce lethal dose levels quite rapidly. At
normal breathing of, say, 900 liters per
hour, concentrations as low as 22 spores
per liter could produce an LD90 within an
hour! Early warning becomes an even more urgent issue
for these “minor” releases.
The Integrated Early-Warning System
Among its most important recommendations, the National
Academies report emphasized the continuing need for
software developments that would “improve modeling of
the environmental transport and fate” of the biological
agents. It is not difficult to conclude from the above
example, which again emphasizes the heterogeneous
distributions expected of the deployed threat cloud,
that the only effective means by which threatened
populations may be provided with sufficient early
warning is through the deployment of point-source
detector stations throughout all regions where
protection is sought. Real-time reporting by these
stations is needed to provide the data required by the
software models for early warning to the targeted
populations. Each such detector must be capable of
detecting the presence of an unusual aerosol, providing
a presumptive or “best guess” identification (if such is
available), monitoring as a function time the population
of such aerosol particles in terms of their composition
and number density, and continually updating the
presumptive identification. But these are just the
real-time detection features required of each
detector station. In addition, each must be provided
with networking capability to transmit the results of
each measurement period to a central station for
subsequent correlation, analysis, and prediction. An
early function of the central station is to examine the
data being collected and transmitted to it in terms of
the hazardous aerosol cloud properties listed in
Table 1. The degree to which the newly detected
aerosol properties correlate with those listed in the
table would allow for an earlier alarm warning of the
potential threat even before more quantitative data had
been collected. In a sense, the properties of
Table 1 represent the forest, while the results
of any single detector station corresponds to a tree. It
must be the overall objective of the detector network to
recognize early the aerosol threat (the forest)
rather than focus on any single detector response
(a tree). Only by such means will the system be
able to provide adequate warnings to an unsuspecting
population while initiating tracking and localized
warnings of the terrorist threat. Naturally, the small
puff release into a room or similar enclosure represents
a very special case. On the one hand, such a limited
region may have no detector station present and,
therefore, no chance of early warning. However, if some
rooms or regions do have detector stations linked to a
central station, the detection by one or several
single-room detector stations should result in a
determination by the central station that the entire
building or region may be threatened and thereby would
produce an early-warning alarm.
The central station must process the data received from
the detector stations to calculate the current spatial
extent of the threat cloud and predict its future
position and aerosol distribution. It must examine also
the presumptive identifications transmitted by each
reporting detector station and resolve any conflicting
reports and identifications. The central station should
be capable, as well, of directing specific detectors to
change their sampling rates as well as to zero in on the
detection of specific aerosol properties already
confirmed as suspicious by other stations. On this
basis, using the input data from vast arrays of detector
stations, false positive alarms can be minimized
significantly. A well-networked system of detector and
central stations should provide all the information
required of a meaningful early-warning system . However,
associated with the network itself must be the adequate
and suitable placement of the detector stations
throughout the region explicitly selected for protection
as well as peripheral regions through which threat
aerosols may intrude.
Of the aerosol particles measured and classified by each
detector station, there will exist always the
possibility that the threat particles will represent a
very small fraction of the particles processed.
Ordinarily, if only a single detection station is in
use, such associated events might be overlooked or
discarded as most probably representative of an error
due to the detector station itself. Because of the vast
array of detector stations deployed for an early-warning
system, such rare events will appear at other contiguous
detector stations and, because the stations are linked
and their measurements correlated, will effectively
reinforce the conclusion that these small populations do
indeed represent a real constituent of the sampled
aerosol. Thus the ability to detect and classify
very low fractional populations as they appear and are
detected at successive stations is a critical
requirement of an early-warning system . Equally
important is the function of the central station linking
a large set of detector stations. For localized releases
in confined areas that may have only a single detection
station, any delay in detection can result in a
determination that the detected signals corresponded to
an unlikely event. It is imperative that these single
detectors have a high enough sampling rate to ensure
detection at the earliest possible moment.
Having identified the general structure of an integrated
early-warning system, the constituents of a typical
detector station must be defined. A station must have
small power requirements and be able to operate for many
months, or even years, in a very wide range of physical
environments with minimal requirements for service and
maintenance. Each station must be self-diagnosing and
capable of reporting any malfunction to the central
station. As discussed previously, each station must be
capable of both collecting data and processing them.
Thus each must have both computer and memory means
including both ROM and RAM elements. Interfaced with
these elements would be suitable telecommunications
components (a receiver/transmitter, antenna, power
supply, small memory, etc.) to permit two-way data
transfer between the station and the central station as
well as enable reprogramming of each detector station by
the central station. These properties, which are
essential for the early defeat of most bioterrorist
attacks, narrow the types of detector strategies that
might be implemented using available technologies.
Certainly all wet-chemistry detection methods are not
practical, nor are so-called one-shot devices such as
biochips. Methods relying on collection and subsequent
wet-chemistry analyses such as fluorescent antibody
staining techniques are impractical for such deployment.
Methods incorporating mass spectrometers and the
preparation apparatus for such measurements are equally
impractical. Methods requiring the pre-seeding of
protected areas with a broad range of antibodies are
impractical,[48]
and methods based upon constant
airborne or other stand-off approaches would be
incapable of protecting arbitrary population centers
selected by bioterrorists for their target.
No matter what detection method is employed to provide
for early warning, eventually the agent will be so
diluted that it may no longer be detectable—such as when
the initially inserted biological agent cloud (puff)
becomes diluted by the atmospheric mixing and physical
obstacles. Such limits of detection will depend on many
factors, including the sensitivity of the detection
system, interfering background particulates with
signatures that overwhelm or confuse the detection
system, and the local concentration of the inserted
agent. Theoretically, some agents may continue to be
dangerous (disease threatening) even at extremely low
concentrations. In the example presented concerning the
introduction into the atmosphere of a swath of anthrax
spores, at a constant concentration of only 22
spores per liter, an infective and potentially
lethal dose could be inhaled and deposited after just
one hour of breathing. Even lower residual levels still
may prove effective after many additional hours of
cumulative inhalation. Neglecting background particles
that may interfere with the detection of the targeted
aerosol particles, at some low concentration the
collection and subsequent detection technique employed
will miss the target aerosol particles entirely and
report none present. This fact adds urgency to the need
to detect the threat at the earliest possible moment and
at a location as close to the release location as
possible. Such early detection, combined with further
development of software capable of accurate prediction
of the cloud concentration as a function of position,
will permit subsequent notice to the attacked population
of an “all clear, safe to come out” condition.
The concept of examining the aerosol particles one at a
time by various analytical means has always been
attractive. For the BIDS laboratory described earlier,
the collected particles, once pre-processed, are
examined in a flow cytometer. For such examination, the
particles may be stained and their fluorescence spectra
examined as they pass through an intense beam radiated
by a laser. The measurements thus occur in
vitro rather than in a more desirable
in situ setting. Some work has been
reported on single-particle in situ
measurements by which the presence of biological
particles may be confirmed by detecting their
characteristic fluorescence.[49]
A great amount of effort is being directed to the
development of biochips, immuno–polymerase
chain-reaction methods, genetic sequencing, SMART
tickets, biological warfare tickets, single-particle
fluorescence counters, ligand-based probes,
fluorescence-based transduction, and other devices and
techniques to detect specific markers characteristic of
various classes and types of potential biological
agents.[50]
Yet it is clearly evident that
the biological aerosol constituents themselves are
easily modified to deceive many such detectors. Indeed,
it often may be possible to coat or otherwise modify
individual aerosol particles with a wide variety of
materials, making their biochemical identification even
more difficult and time consuming. Some coatings may
provide protection against penetrating radiation
(“sunscreen”), while others might provide protection
against hydration for many hours or even days. Some
bio-particles could be coated easily with irrelevant
and, therefore, confusing antigenic substances. Thus,
although some wet biochemical testing could be expected
to help identify certain biological constituents fairly
rapidly (for example, as processed by a BIDS[51]),
the aerosols may have been so well prepared (“weaponized”)
that the only near-term conclusion is that a foreign
aerosol has been inserted into a specific region that
was previously devoid of such content. The aerosol
detector networks must be capable of detecting such
events, with or without subsequent biochemical analyses
and identification. The networks must also be capable of
characterizing entirely new aerosol classes relative to
any that had been cataloged previously. The anthrax
spores sent out in letters were cleverly prepared so as
to eliminate any physical features that might produce
clumping—by electrostatic charge effects, for example.
Compared to conventional untreated bacterial spores,
these appear to have had their surfaces specially
modified to prevent the buildup of such charges. It
would be expected that their surface antigens were quite
different from those associated with normal anthrax
spores.
Although the National Academies report focused entirely
on U.S. capabilities and activities, many other
countries maintain active research and development
programs in biological and chemical defense. In
reviewing the programs of two of the largest—the British
and the Canadian—we find that no types of
early-detection techniques are being developed other
than those already within the scope of the National
Academies report. Interestingly, the British Defence
Evaluation and Research Agency Porton Down activity,[52]
an agency of the Ministry of
Defence, solicits customers worldwide to establish
partnering relationships in chemical and biological
defense. It states, for example, that the U.S.
Department of Defense is one of its customers. The U.S.
Defense Threat Reduction Agency, which employs over
90 professionals, claims to have “developed
the most advanced threat detection capabilities in the
world today,” yet a perusal of its website and
literature offers few clues as to which of these
capabilities are different from any discussed in the
National Academies report. A similar review of the
Canadian Biological Aerosol Facilities at the Defence
Research Establishment Suffield[53]
confirms that it too is involved
in research areas similar to those described in the
National Academies report. The Canadian work on “Rapid
Detection and Identification of Biological and Chemical
Agents by Immunoassay, Gene Probe Assay and Enzyme
Inhibition Using a Silicon-Based Biosensor” is similar
to the approaches being used in the United States.
The Aerosol Particle Analyzer
One of the simplest (in concept), yet most powerful,
means for the rapid in situ characterization of
individual aerosol particles comprises a localized
point-source collection system (shown schematically in
Figure 1) that samples its ambient
environment by drawing in an airstream in which the
aerosol particles are entrained. The sampled aerosol
particles (1) are diluted, as required, by
an aerosol-handling module (2) to ensure a
flow of particles, one at a time, through a fine light
beam produced by a laser (3). This laser
beam lies along a diameter of a spherical scattering
chamber (4) and intersects at the center of
the chamber the aerosol stream constrained to pass along
another diameter of the chamber. As each aerosol
particle passes through the beam, it produces a pulse of
light scattered in a spherical wave that is then
detected by a plurality of preselected detectors
(5). The analyzed particles (6) then
exit through an exhaust (7). As each
detector lies at a unique angular location (q,f),
the measurement is often referred to as a “multiangle
light scattering” measurement. Such collection and
detection concepts were developed and confirmed many
years ago and formed the basis of the so-called aerosol
particle analyzer[54]
(APA) when combined with
computer means containing appropriate analytical
software.

Figure 1. Schematic of key aerosol particle analyzer
elements
Figure 2 shows an early version of the APA as
implemented for research purposes at the University of
Minnesota. The outer diameter of the scattering chamber
was about 100 mm, and the argon-ion laser
produced about 105 W/m2
at the target aerosol particles passing through the
beam. The signals were collected by the optical fibers
shown and transmitted to a bank of photomultiplier
tubes. Not surprisingly, this was an approach overlooked
in the National Academies report. There are at least
three reasons for this oversight: The basic objective of
the National Academies study was to recommend research
and development programs to improve the medical
response to such attacks. Second, the committee that
prepared the report did not have any members who were
skilled in or familiar with electro-optical detection
techniques. Finally, there is little evidence that the
government’s research and development efforts in
detection technology before about 1990 were searched or
considered. The basic makeup of the committee was in
keeping with its primary objectives.
Figure 2. Original research APA, including the
associated elements shown: argon-ion laser operating at
488 nm, scattering chamber of 100 mm outer diameter and
40 mm inner diameter, optical fibers that collect and
transmit scattered signals to a bank of photomultiplier
tube detectors, and aerosol-handling elements.
Of all measurements that may be made in real time on
aerosol particles, one at a time, the greatest amount of
information available comes from those involving light
scattering and its associated implementations. This
characterizing information may be further expanded by
fitting the individual detectors within an APA detector
station with optical analyzers of various types (polarizers,
quarter and half wave plates, interference filters,
liquid crystal variable retarders, etc.), but by far the
most important feature of an APA detector station would
be its ability (under suitable software control) to
recognize the appearance of aerosol types that may be
different from those that may have been stored
previously for classification purposes. For example,
though the optical observables characteristic of anthrax
spores might be saved in a reference collection against
which those from a newly appearing unknown particle
might be compared, the spores themselves (as discussed
earlier) might well have been modified before release to
confuse such comparisons or to interfere with
biochemical tests that might be performed routinely for
clinical identification. The spores transmitted via the
mails were certainly modified to achieve their special
dispersal characteristics. We could expect that such
modified spores would produce light-scattering
characteristics quite different from any that might have
been cataloged previously. Nevertheless, a suitably
programmed APA detector station should start enumerating
the new particles detected and communicate this
information throughout the detector station network to
establish a correlation or relationship between the new
aerosol and the recently detected aerosol cloud or for
the case of letter-delivered puffs.
The basic premise of the multiangle light-scattering
technique is that the measurement (using suitable
analyzer-fitted detectors), over a sufficient range of
both azimuthal and polar angles, of light scattered by
an individual aerosol particle contains sufficient
information to characterize and classify a wide range of
such particles and permit their differentiation by a
suitable choice of the so-called optical observable sets
selected. The concept was described[55]
in 1968 and confirmed in a
variety of papers.[56–59]
The first instrumentation,[60]
developed under Government
contract with the U.S. Army Armament, Munitions and
Chemical Command, was introduced in 1986 and is still
frequently used. It includes means to measure scattered
light intensities and polarizations at a plurality of
scattering angles from individual aerosol particles.
Included among its capabilities was the ability to
classify and, thereby, differentiate spores,[61]
bacteria,[62]
flyash,[63]
photochemical smog particles,[64]
and similar particle classes. The
basis for using these measurements to create a set of
optical observables by which means such particles could
be differentiated and characterized was described in
another paper[65]
concerning the explicit
identification of various phytoplankton. There are
significant further advantages of a deployed interactive
network comprising such APA detector stations. Foremost
among them is the ability to provide improved levels of
aerosol characterization and all of the operating
capabilities summarized following Table 1.
The multiplicity of independent measurements of the
aerosol threat at different physical locations and times
can be used further to refine presumptive particle
characterizations. For example, toxins deployed as
aerosolized droplets may well exhibit evaporation
effects that will result in a changing particle size
distribution, easily detected and monitored by
individual stations of the APA detector station network
components. Indeed, a great number of liquid
droplet-deployed chemical agents may be detected readily
and characterized by the same instrumentation used to
characterize bio-aerosol clouds.
Continuing research efforts have been in progress for
many years to explore and develop point-source detectors
incorporating light-scattering measurements. The
U.S. Army Applied Research Laboratories have
expanded their own intramural facilities significantly
while supporting important contract research with
leading technical groups throughout the United States
and abroad.[66]
For example, as discussed
earlier, fluorescence spectrum analyzers for the
measurement of single bio-aerosol particles are being
explored as a characterization technique for such
particles.[67]
During the period since the first
APA was delivered,[68]
there have been numerous
developments that could accelerate the deployment of
APA-based detector stations. Solid-state laser sources
operating at high power efficiency have become readily
available together with compact high-sensitivity
detectors. Integrated digital signal-processing chips
are far more powerful, compact, and inexpensive than
they were just a few years ago. Such chips preprocess
the signals from each detector within the APA. Wireless
technology has evolved so rapidly that complete
communications devices, including power supplies, are
available in formats not much larger than a wristwatch.
Fabrication costs have fallen as performance has
accelerated.
Consider a system capable of classifying and processing
about 50,000 aerosol particles per minute. Such
processing would include all associated data reduction
and telecommunications with the central station required
to associate a given measurement with a particular class
of threat. (Classification would include the so-called
“unusual” designation.) Were some particles evaporating
or hydrating over time, these properties could be
discernable as well if a sufficient population were
present within a reasonable period (for example, several
minutes) of analysis. If the laminar sheath entrained
aerosol stream moved at a rate of 2 m/sec
through a laser beam of 0.5 mm diameter, the time for
passage of a single particle through this beam would be
about <\/nobr>250 µseconds. The volume of aerosol
examined per minute would be about 500 µl.
This would correspond to a maximum sampled density of
105/ml, well above the level of
the anthrax spore swath discussed earlier. Even under
the most extreme particle loading, the APA devices could
easily process the samples presented.
One of the most interesting and desirable elements of
the multiangle light-scattering measurement technique
employed by an APA detector is the ability to examine
some important physical properties of each particle
passing through its laser beam, no matter what the
overall concentration of the particle species may be.
Using a 50-mW laser source operating at a
wavelength of 690 nm, each particle the
size of an anthrax spore would scatter on the order of
108 photons during its passage
through the laser beam. This is a large number of
photons with scattering properties that may be used to
classify such particles often in terms of size, shape,
refractive index, and anisotropic structure. Such
scattering characteristics may be compared against
cataloged sets or distinguished from such prior
collections based on subtle scattering differences. The
important feature to emphasize here is that the
characterization of any particle, no matter what its
relative population may be, is independent of the
properties measured of other members of the targeted
set. The early detected threat particles, measured at
higher concentrations, would be used by the network to
establish optical observables or “fingerprints” for use
by detectors more distant from the location of threat
insertion or for later measurements once the particle
concentrations have decreased.
System Sizes and Costs
The anticipated costs of an updated APA detector station
capable of classifying 10,000 to 50,000 particles
per minute should be quite reasonable while providing
durability unavailable in the past. It is estimated that
in quantities of 1,000 units (including
programmable aerosol-handling capabilities,
telecommunications links, and central stations), the
average cost per unit would be $10,000 to $15,000. Once
quantities exceed 100,000 units, unit costs
should fall to $1,000 or less.
The number of detector stations needed to protect (that
is, provide early warning to) a city may be estimated as
follows. Neglecting impediments of structures to the
intrusion of the threat cloud particles, we would hope
for threat detection at station locations that lie no
further than 100 m from any intruding
elements. The resolution in altitude must be
considerably finer than 100 m, as the cloud’s
interaction with the majority of the targeted population
should occur within a very narrow height above the
ground (see Table 1, items 9 and 10). This
100-m detector station resolution should be
available at, say, the specific elevations of 2, 5, and
10 m. In addition, a detector station at 50
m or the highest position available for that location
would provide an additional monitor for clouds/threats
delivered at higher, though less effective, altitudes.
On this basis, we find a requirement of about
60,081 x 4 ˜ 325 detector stations/km2.
In regions with a large fraction of the ground area
occupied by inaccessible structures, this figure could
be smaller. Were such structures large occupied
buildings (for example, in Manhattan), they might
require additional customized distributions of
detector stations within each building provided,
perhaps, by the building ownership itself. These might
include stations at air intake locations and other areas
readily accessible to outside air as well as individual
rooms where, for example, mail and packages are
processed for subsequent distribution. Some localized
regions containing transient populations (for example,
subway stations, stadiums, public meeting areas, and
sports arenas) may require specially configured detector
station networks. Wider distributed regions comprising
single-family homes of one or two stories, such as the
greater Los Angeles area, may not require so high a
density of detector stations. Peripheral regions through
which threat clouds might be successfully launched
require additional stations, some of which may be at a
greater altitude than assumed above. Special
configurations may also be required for critical
buildings such as embassies, police stations, and
military command centers. With the successful use of
mail transmission into congressional buildings, monitors
may be needed in offices of congressional staffs and
elected officials. Table 2 presents a
selection of U.S. cities, their incorporated areas, and
the relatively crude estimates of detector stations
required to provide such areas with early warning of an
intruding aerosol cloud. These figures will need
adjustment for the variations of protection associated
with specific local factors as discussed above.
Table 2. Estimated detector station requirements for
selected cities
|
City |
Area
(km2) |
Detector Stations |
|
Chicago |
591 |
192,000 |
|
Dallas |
979 |
318,000 |
|
Denver |
400 |
130,000 |
|
Los Angeles |
1,211 |
394,000 |
|
Manhattan Island |
57 |
19,000 |
|
Palo Alto |
67 |
22,000 |
|
San Francisco |
119 |
39,000 |
|
Santa Barbara |
55 |
39,000 |
|
Seattle |
375 |
122,000 |
|
Washington, DC |
179 |
58,000 |
Although the networked APA
detector stations alone will provide an almost immediate
warning of an intruding aerosol cloud of unknown origin,
at minimal incremental cost a simple pulsed ultraviolet
source may be added to selected stations to interrogate
each analyzed particle for fluorescence—a characteristic
often associated with proteinaceous materials. As
different types of auxiliary detection measurement
techniques become available, they too, may be integrated
into selected detector stations. Again it must be
emphasized that aerosol particles may be “disguised”
easily (weaponized) so as to render many types of
expected characteristics, including fluorescence,
undetectable.
Remediation: Other Uses of APA Detector Stations
Figure 3. Schematic layout of portable remediation
device based on aerosol detection station, including the
following elements: APA chamber, programmable central
processing unit and associated electronics, ultrasonic
particle release mechanism, communications module, and
aerosol-handling and collection elements.
Although this article has focused primarily upon the use
and importance of early-warning systems, the deployment
of anthrax spores throughout the U.S. postal
system, federal and congressional office buildings, and
private offices has exposed another significant problem
of great importance. This concerns the detection and
identification of contaminated areas and their
remediation. Once a portable APA station has been
programmed to recognize the specific optical observables
characterizing the biohazard being sought (most recently
anthrax spores), it becomes a simple matter to examine
various locations that might harbor such agents. The
location would be queried by means of an ultrasonic
loosening of possible contaminants adhering to surfaces
or by use of air bursts (vacuum safety backup
capabilities should be available during such
activities). A portable, handheld version of an APA
would sample the local air regions that had been
disrupted. As the targeted particles were identified,
the programmed alarm-and-warning system would be
activated.
Similarly, the same APA device could monitor the cleanup
of specific contaminated regions. Figure 3
shows a schematic view of a proposed portable
APA-based device.
Conclusions
So where does the threat of a bioterrorist attack stand?
The threat is certainly serious and, whether exaggerated
or not, has had some significant consequences already.
The relative ease by which deliveries of anthrax spore
puffs into offices and postal sorting stations have been
achieved suggests that, targeting local, relatively
small segments of the population, the problem is
becoming far more serious. The accelerating support for
related research and development mandated by Congress
has resulted in a virtual bonanza for many programs that
have even a remote relationship to the subject. Some of
these programs are wasteful of the funds expended on
them, as they duplicate similar efforts supported by the
Defense Department many decades earlier. Others,
especially in areas related to the rapid diagnosis of
infectious diseases, are of great immediate benefit and
will contribute significantly to improved health care
for many of the world’s populations most vulnerable to
the diseases targeted by the new diagnoses. Without the
current feelings about the threat of bioterrorism, these
programs probably would have had a minimal chance for
governmental support. In addition, the need to establish
a coordinated response between diverse governmental
agencies and health care providers in the event of any
such catastrophe is being given well-deserved additional
attention and funding through support by the federal
government. Recent experiences, however, suggest that
such coordination has a long way to go.
One of the most impressive confirmations of the need for
an early-warning network was the demonstration, by means
of a simulated attack, that without such warning the
results would be catastrophic. In 1999, Congress
directed the Department of Justice to conduct an
exercise engaging key personnel in the management of
mock chemical, biological, or cyberterrorist attacks.
The resulting exercise was called “Topoff,” named for
its engagement of top officials of the U.S. government.
The mock bioterrorist attack was located in Denver and
began on 20 May 2000. The major conclusion
of the exercise was summarized in an article by Thomas
V. Inglesby et al.[69]
“The systems and
resources now in place would be hard-pressed to
successfully manage a bioweapons attack like that
simulated in TOPOFF.” Amy Smithson of the Henry L.
Stimson Center, a group that promotes international
strengthening[70, 71]
of and compliance with the
Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention of 1972, was far
more critical in her statement before Congress:[72]
“This exercise … graphically
demonstrated the shortcomings of the federal
government’s organizational structure.… the road to
Hades is paved with decisions by committee.” Her
predictions were borne out by the lack of a coordinated
response to the events surrounding the letter attacks
then in progress. Indeed, despite the Government support
for early detection of bioterrorist threats, neither the
Army Research Laboratories Chemical and Biological
Aerosols Team website nor the Stimson Center’s report
House of Cards mentioned how early warning or
detection might have significantly changed the course of
the simulated attack. None of the tools (for example,
BIDS) purportedly developed by the government
specifically to speed up the detection of an in-progress
attack was mentioned in any of the reports of the
exercise.
Early warning will continue to represent the best
defense against a successful bioterrorist attack.
However, the successful delivery of an aerosol cloud is
not as easily achieved as proposed. Even before their
infamous attack on the Tokyo subway system, the Aum
Shinrikyo cult[73]
had tried repeatedly without
success to use biological agents for attacks on local
populations. The delivery of such a threat at the proper
altitude and under suitable atmospheric conditions to a
major urban population center is an extremely difficult
task requiring far greater sophistication than is
commonly believed. Proposed releases from aircraft,
trucks, or other vehicles would be detected by
appropriately distributed detector stations almost
immediately after deployment and long before the aerosol
reached significant targets. Immediate detection in
closed rooms or areas under directed attack via the
mails could have prevented many of the injuries and
deaths reported to date. As mentioned earlier, typical
inhalable aerosols fall so slowly that their
introduction by aircraft means seems unlikely, though
crop dusters apparently have received some attention
recently. Attacks by missile means, such as purportedly
planned by the Iraqis[74]
during and following the Gulf
War, can deliver quickly and at the correct altitude
biological agents to military targets. However, the
appearance of the missile itself or a crop duster, were
such used, is as early a warning as possible, though the
detector stations present would still provide a rapid
confirmation of the aerosol’s presumptive composition
and danger, as well as the dynamics of its distribution
throughout the targeted region. The delivery of
specially prepared anthrax spores via the mails has
proven remarkably simple and effective though by no
means a technique of mass destruction. The preparation
of the spores, however, appears to have required an
extraordinary amount of skill found only in a few
laboratories throughout the world.[75]
There are three distinct elements that suggest,
therefore, that the threat of a bioterrorist attack may
be diminished soon. First, as discussed, is the fact
that massive aerosol cloud-based attacks are extremely
difficult to implement. Second is the hope, though
perhaps unlikely, that the historical aerosol of choice
comprising B. anthracis spores may no longer be
attractive because of the possibility of a universal
antitoxin effective irrespective of the engineered
antibiotic susceptibility of the anthrax organism.[76]
Before such a hope may be
realized, however, a great amount of research and study
will be required to address the potential problems
associated with the use of mutant protective antigen as
discussed earlier. Finally, technology exists that can
provide extensive point-source detection networks, with
their concomitant ability to provide real-time warning
of an attack in progress. With such a warning, the
casualties within virtually any civilian target might
well be reduced significantly.
Despite the numerous strategies proposed to cope with
the consequences of a successful biological attack,
there can be no greater urgency than the immediate and
continuing deployment and refinement of point-source APA
detector stations and their associated networks
throughout the numerous vulnerable sites. This is a long
and expensive task, but each unit deployed will
represent a further diminution of the dangers associated
with biological and, in many cases, chemical terrorism.
In this latter regard, the National Academies report
states, “Terrorist incidents involving biological
agents, especially infectious agents, are likely to be
very different from those involving chemical agents, and
thus demand very different preparation and response.”
The use of the mails for delivery of attacks using
anthrax spores confirms this conclusion. However, the
APA stations proposed may detect those chemical
incidents that involve aerosolized delivery mechanisms,
and, in this case, the National Academies conclusion
might require some revision. Most important, such
proposed networks do not serve only an antiterrorist
purpose; they concomitantly provide the means by which
the natural environment may be monitored for other
dangerous aerosol particulates, both man-made and
natural. The correlation between inhaled particulate
matter (such as carbon particles) and cancer has been
known for many years. New federal regulations have been
proposed to control and prevent hazardous particulate
releases into the atmosphere and workplace. Not only
will regulations governing the workplace be expanded to
include each class of aerosol particle subsequently
found to pose a health hazard; much of the environment
throughout populated regions will fall under further
scrutiny as the effects of particulates on human health
are better understood. The concept of a distributed
network of collaborative point-source APA detectors will
prove equally useful in detecting and providing
early-warning alarms of potentially hazardous particles
such as soot, smog, asbestos fibers, and accidental
toxic aerosol releases from industrial sources. Thus the
deployment of extensive APA-based detector networks,
while providing early warning of many classes of
bioterrorist (and some chemical terrorist) attacks in
progress, will provide immediate and continuing
localized aerosol-monitoring capabilities. The
multipurpose utility of deployed APA networks permits
their application immediately to efforts intended to
improve the local environment while providing some
comfort to the local populations they are intended to
protect against a variety of possible terrorist threats.
The conditioning and preparation of the local
populations so protected for the appearance of
environmentally dangerous aerosols and the subsequent
alarms provided by the monitoring stations will play a
major role in diminishing the psychological panic
associated with a purely terrorist attack.
Acknowledgements
The suggestions, clarifications, and education provided
to the author by Professor Matthew Meselson were
invaluable during the many revisions of this paper. The
early encouragement and comments by Professor Edward
Adelberg were equally useful in bringing together many
of the microbiological details and ideas. The comments
and observations of Dr. Peter Rosen were
also important, as were the more physics-specific
remarks of my colleagues Dr. Steven
Trainoff and Dr. Miles Weida.
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1.
NATO
Handbook on the Medical Aspects of NBC Defensive
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3. C.
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4. Cf.
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5. Barry
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6. Ibid.
7.
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Chemical and Biological Terrorism.
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Chemical and Biological Terrorism.
12. NATO
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13. Ibid.
14.
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19. See
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and Chemical and Biological
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2000, pp.
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23. Ibid.
24.
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